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Home Industry It is in a state of diversified channels, and the source of orders is further dispersed, including finished houses (hardcover rooms), self-contained houses, big home stores, home stores, new retail stores, Tmall, Jingdong, many more, and community buys. How to harvest traffic in a scattered market, whether new models and new technologies should be kept up, this is the problem facing enterprises.
2019 started working for more than a week, and heard three voices:
One voice is that the business is worse than last year, there is no one in the store every day, and there were transactions last year; Another voice is that there are transactions, and this year, the door is open, the owners are ready to decorate, the business is good or not depends on their own ability, as well as the brand’s appeal; there is also a voice, compared with last year, it feels nothing changes , ready to engage in some promotions, seize the peak season in March.
Time pushed back to January, the situation is not good, the national building materials home prosperity index (BHI) was 73.99, down 19.74 points month on month, down 5.83 points year on year. The sales of building materials and homes above designated size in the country was 61.70 billion yuan in January, down 32.88% from the previous month and down 9.46% year-on-year.
There is nothing about the decline in the chain. After all, the month before the Spring Festival and the month when the Spring Festival is going, the business must be worse, and the chain is generally down. But the year-on-year decline, it shows that the situation is not very good. The national market fell a few points, which is equivalent to billions of dollars, and was assigned to the store, which means that in January, some dealers’ business has already exploded.
The situation in February is not expected to be too obvious to reverse. After all, during the Spring Festival, there is basically no deal in the physical store. Everyone starts working on February 10th. However, everyone notices that the online home business is not bad. Jingdong has released a Spring Festival consumption data, which is unexpected. Their conclusions are:
1. Top 5 categories of sales: mobile communication, computer office, household appliances, clothing shoes and home furnishings.
2. Compared with the same period of last year, the top 5 categories with the fastest year-on-year sales are: kitchen utensils (399%), home furnishings (185%), gift bags (148%), local life/ Travel (107%), medical care (83%).
The performance of home furnishings is very eye-catching, and a certain proportion of household consumption during the Spring Festival has been transferred to the Internet. Alibaba also has a 2019 Spring Festival economic report, but did not specifically disclose the trading situation of furniture and building materials and home improvement.
The above quoted the information, what exactly does it reflect? The material research suggests that the situation in 2019 is not very bad, and the overall prosperity of the industry is somewhat reduced, which will affect a small number of enterprises. Offline business, mainly offline business is affected more.
The sales of home appliances in home furnishings are so good, indicating that passenger traffic and spending habits are still shifting online. Adding up and down the line, in fact, the situation in the industry is not bad. However, without catching up with the new traffic, things are not good.
The material research cited an analysis of Tianfeng Light Industry, several of which are as follows:
(1) 300 cities completed based on the completed area and Ovi Cloud Data, the amount of completed delivery in 2019 is expected to improve compared to 2018, and the demand for decoration will increase, driving the home business in 2019 to bottom out in the second quarter. At the same time, the sales area of first- and second-line new homes is expected to improve in 2019.
(2) The second-hand housing transactions in the 10 major cities we tracked have recovered from the second half of 2018. It is expected to continue to improve in 2019, driven by the just-needed and real estate policies.
(3) Changes in real estate due to urban policies may lead to the relaxation of regulation and control in some cities.
(4) The logic of household enterprise concentration improvement is still established. After the barbaric development period of channel dividends, empowering dealers will become a new growth engine.
The above judgments are relatively objective and in line with the trend of most organizations on the trend of the pan-home industry. The major material research should add that in January 2019, the sales of some real estate leading enterprises were declining, but some second-tier housing enterprises grew gorgeously. This kind of change deserves our attention. For example, if you make an engineering order, you can’t just stare at it. Leading housing enterprises must regard regional and second-tier housing enterprises as the key targets. Of course, we must pay attention to the cash flow of developers, which is relatively healthy.
In addition, the concentration of the home market will continue to rise, the dividends of traditional channels are rarely rare, and simply empowering dealers is unlikely to be a new growth engine. The dealers themselves have limitations. Most of them can do business, then find customers, talk about customers, and do services. As a company, it is necessary to seize the potential channels of the supply chain platform, fine decoration, apartments, rental housing, and equipment.
Da Chaoming Deng Chaoming also has several analysis on the industry situation. The main points are as follows:
(1) Under the tone of the property market, the local government can make its own situation. Formulating the property market policy does not rule out the local fine-tuning policy.
At present, the two conferences of various provinces and cities are held one after another. The attitude of real estate is almost the same. The main line is that the house is used for living, not for speculation. At the same time, it emphasizes stable land prices, stable prices, stable expectations, and targets. Still have to maintain the stability of the real estate market.
What does stability mean? It means that house prices cannot rise rapidly, and there will be no big fluctuations in trading volume. Of course, house prices may fall, but there will be no plunging, maintenance.On the basis of 2018, there may be a small increase, and some cities will decline slightly.
The real estate boom is not a problem, the new construction, completion and delivery are stable, and the market space of the natural home building materials and decoration industry will not be compressed.
(2) Is the industry’s economy stable? It means that everyone’s days will not be too uncomfortable?
Not necessarily, most people can still live, a little more Do not go. Market concentration will rise further, and companies that account for 20% of the total will live very well. 80% of listed home furnishing companies are expected to maintain at least a 20% growth rate in 2019.
In the leading companies that are not listed, such as Hengjie, Jiumu, Zhanchen, Wrigley and so on, most of them should also maintain this increase. However, those 20% of SMEs in the tail will have a very uncomfortable day, and the number of bank failures should not be less than in 2018.
Even so, there will be a lot of new companies, and large-scale research is expected to be concentrated in such areas. The market is not too mature, and the opportunity space is relatively large, such as: home Building materials supply chain, new home retail tools, intelligent lighting, smart locks, smart toilets, system bathroom, top wall integration, light luxury furniture, assembled interiors, etc.
(3) The research on large materials is expected to increase the proportion of finished products. In 2018, the country is about 25%, and the first-tier cities are about 70%. Some data show that it is about 90%. The city is around 50%, and this proportion will continue to rise.
There must be a closure of the renovation company, but the increase in the proportion of hardcover houses does not mean the depression of the renovation market.
Even if it is a very high-end first-tier city, it still survives many companies, some of which are leading companies, opening chains in the country, such as Beijing’s Dongyi Risheng and Longfa Decoration, but survived. All of them are made of diamonds and can be used for porcelain.
Either take the order from the developer, or do the old house and N decoration business, or the renovation of the finished house. A certain proportion of middle- and high-income owners will knock out the finished product delivered by the developer and renovate it.
(4) Diversified channels, once again divided the buyer’s attention, the source of orders further dispersed, including finished rooms (hardcover rooms), self-contained, big home stores, home stores, new retail stores, days Cat, Jingdong, fight more, community buy, and so on.
In addition to the store channel, you must firmly grasp two or three places, and you will have no worries in the future. Of course, the national chain or local leading-level home stores such as Red Star Macalline, Real Home, Fusenmei, Daming Palace are also the core channels and traffic sources.
However, the stores in the store are polarized. Some stores have no guests. Every year, the stores are separated. They test two kinds of abilities: First, can you grab customers in the store? Second, can you get out? The store, to the vast world to grab customers.
(5) New category, new model impact, such as whole house customization, smart home, self-assembly, system bathroom, integrated wall, etc., all in the market development stage, mature, you will not follow Is there any strength? How to cut in? If you are a dealer, how to cut in? Test our wisdom and action.
Don’t you can’t do it? Maybe not, you have to consider the business in 5 years and 10 years in advance. The suggestion of large-scale research is that, under conditions of conditions, it is unwise to follow new categories, new models and new technologies, and reject and reject them. Choose the entry points that you have confidence in, and get in and do it. A more secure approach may be to find the right alliance and break the game together.
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